| Event | Latest Opinion Poll |
Actual Result |
Difference (1st/2nd place) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 General Election |
38% CON, 38% LAB, 20% LDEM, 4% OTH | 43% CON, 35% LAB, 18% LDEM, 4% OTH |
CON -5%, LAB +3% |
| 1997 General Election |
33% CON, 43% LAB, 18% LDEM, 6% OTH |
31.4% CON, 44.1% LAB, 17.2% LDEM, 7% OTH |
LAB -1.1%, CON +1.6% |
| 2001 General Election |
32% CON, 43% LAB, 19% LDEM, 6% OTH |
32.7% CON, 42% LAB, 18.8% LDEM, 6.5% OTH |
LAB -1%, CON -0.7% |
| 2005 General Election |
32% CON, 38% LAB, 22% LDEM, 8% OTH |
33.2% CON, 36.2% LAB, 22.6% LDEM, 8% OTH |
LAB +1.8%, CON -1.2% |
| 2010 General Election |
36% CON, 28% LAB, 26% LDEM, 10% OTH |
36.45% CON, 29.01% LAB, 23.03% LDEM, 11.95% OTH |
CON -0.45%, LAB -1.01% |
| 2011 Alternative Vote Referendum | YES 32%, NO 68% |
YES 32.1%, NO 67.9% | YES -0.1%, NO +0.1% |
| 2012 London Mayoral Election (first preferences) |
43% CON, 41% LAB, 8% LDEM, 9% OTH |
CON 44%, LAB 40.3%, LDEM 4.2%, GRN 4.5%, IND 3.8%, UKIP 2%, BNP 1.3% |
CON -1%, LAB +0.7% |
| 2012 London Mayoral Election (after transfers) |
51% CON, 49% LAB |
CON 51.53%, LAB 48.47% |
CON +0.53%, LAB -0.53% |
| 2014 EU Parliament Elections (UK only) |
26% CON, 25% UKIP, 29% LAB, 7% LDEM, 13% OTH |
UKIP 26.6%, LAB 24.4%, CON 23.1%, GRN 6.9%, LDEM 6.6%, SNP 2.3%, PC 0.7% |
CON +2.9%, UKIP -1.6% |
| 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum |
YES 41%, NO 45%, UNDECIDED 14% |
YES 44.7%, NO 55.3% |
Not directly comparable |
| 2015 General Election |
34% CON, 35% LAB, 9% LDEM, 11% UKIP, 4% GRN, 7% OTH |
36.9% CON, 30.4% LAB, 7.9% LDEM, 12.6% UKIP, 3.8% GRN, 8.4% OTH |
CON -2.9%, LAB +4.6% |
ICM final polls versus actual results between 1992 and 2015.