The US General Election 2020
Intro and background
I confess that as a general rule I don’t find US politics hugely interesting. Some aspects of American culture are quite alienating and focusing too much on their politics really brings those aspects to the fore - guns, gerrymandering and Protestants caring about abortion? How odd. Besides which, it’s a strong two-party system with a wide variety of downballot races that are uninteresting or downright inappropriate (judges, anyone?) - a lot happens but ultimately a two-party system with lots of minor elections can be a bit dull and most European countries provide more of interest between major elections. Beyond which, as a liberal European, it’s a lot of effort to maintain a degree of impartiality due to the huge influence of these two parties on the wider world and the fact that one, and we know which one it is, seems pretty extreme right from this side of the Pond. It’s hard to not view it as a bit of a team sport and root for the Democrats, even though they’re not a fantastic party themselves.
However every four years the terribly flawed but deeply compelling presidential elections roll around and suddenly it all becomes fascinating for a while. So I’m doing some predictions about a month out, I’ll make no bones of the fact that I want the Democrats to win and will be viewing it from a blue lens but I intend to be as impartial in my calls as possible. I don’t intend to be a cheerleader!
And I’m also deeply aware that US politics does genuinely operate pretty differently to the systems I’m more familiar with so and that Europeans chiming in on American politics with little experience can be as annoying as the opposite. So view this as primarily a bit of fun, it’s a serious and important election but really this just me doing a bit of poll-watching like I used to in the early 2010s (when I called the, admittedly far easier, 2012 election right in every state).
The 2016 election results - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were all very narrow. This wasn’t a fun election programme to watch.
The polling background to this election is one of a steady Joe Biden lead over Donald Trump, but with this steadiness disguising shifts in swing state polling. This actually is quite unusual, typically the race goes back and forth more often - as an example compare the Real Clear Politics averages for 2012, 2016 and 2020. RCP is a lot more volatile than, say, 538, but nevertheless you can see that 2020 is remarkably steady versus the other two. Naturally there’s some mistrust in polls after the perceived miss of 2016, but this is misplaced in my view as, aside from Wisconsin, the important polls were actually within the margin of error. The media, and punters like myself, just got complacent - a lot of sites doing projections I think have got overcautious as a result.
It’s also worth noting that Biden’s polling leads are far stronger than Clinton’s who, alternated between comfortable several point leads and much more narrow ones. In contrast Biden has been consistently polling at Clinton’s peak and sometimes a few percent higher. Ultimately he only has to do barely better than Clinton to win as the states that swung the election were hypermarginal (Michigan was under 0.25% in favour of Trump) and Hilary Clinton had the biggest popular vote lead for an election loser since 1876. So he’s in a very good position. Finally, while polling error is always possible, major slip-ups are more rare than people tend to think and there’s no reason why a polling error in favour of Trump is more likely than the other way around. Bluntly, although the outcome is never a totally foregone conclusion, Biden’s chances are much better than Clinton’s were unless there’s a huge surprise in the final month.
But what about betting odds, you ask? They’ve been tighter. But ignore them - for my reasons see below:
2016 EU referendum odds on voting day. From Business Insider, in turn from Smarkets.
For another reason why betting odds are usually poor indicators please also see this screenshot Nate Silver of 538 made earlier today:
Yes, that screenshot does indicate that, at least at one point in time, punters thought it was more likely the Hilary Clinton would somehow become president in 2020 than either vice-presidential candidate.
With the election winner not too much in doubt the swing states are keeping things interesting, and details of what outcome will happen change almost day-by-day. Some states have genuinely shifted - for instance Florida has tightened up from a hefty Biden lead to a smaller one, while Ohio has been trending in the other direction and has become a realistic Democratic pick-up. Due to the irregularity of polling in any given state it can be hard to tell at any given time what shifts are real. As an example some polls suggested a severe tightening in Pennsylvania, but there was a reversion to the mean shortly after, with a healthy Biden lead.
This scarcity of polling for most individual states also means that, particularly for the Senate, a rare poll of a state thought uninteresting can bring up surprises - a recent example being South Carolina, where the Senate race was expected to be an easy Republican hold but is actually neck and neck. One poll has even indicated the presidential race to be similarly tight, though this is likely an outlier.
It’s unclear how much events will impact this race, notably Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis (although it’s hard to imagine that being a positive for him) so please keep that in mind if reading this on or after November 2020. Without further ado I’ll move onto the races I think are notable - focusing on the presidential and Senate elections. The latter is quite lengthy so do feel free to skip if you’re only interested in the main event.
Races to note
Presidential
The White House - Wally Gobetz on Flickr - Creative Commons license.
Nationwide the Democrats are doing very well in both polling and fundraising. Beyond this they’ve had some luck as long term demographic changes seem to be benefiting them in the south already while not yet putting the mid-west out of reach. However a lot of states are very, very close. Donald Trump actually winning while this far behind on the popular vote would be unlikely but the difference between a narrow and wide electoral college win is surprisingly small.
It is also worth noting that COVID-19 is a very partisan issue in the USA (depressingly) so Republicans are much more likely to vote in-person and on the day. On election night itself the Republicans may well look like they’re doing better than they are, and if the Democratic result is on the weaker end and there are a lot of problems with accepting posted ballots it’s not entirely impossible for Trump to scrape it. Not at all likely but not entirely impossible.
But, realistically, I see a very slim win as the floor for Biden. This does include winning back the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as well as maintaining Minnesota but at this stage I see these as all solid. Given last time the Democrats shouldn’t be complacent though and these are all still states to watch, just in case.
Joining these states as ones to watch are Arizona and Nebraska’s second district - despite Arizona’s conservative history it’s likely the Democrat’s easiest pick-up outside of the Rust Belt. The remainder of the states worth paying attention to are Maine’s second district, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Beyond this there’s a big jump in voteshare needed before any other Democratic gains and I don’t expect even in a best-case scenario Biden will win any more states beyond these.
In the unlikely event I’m wrong keep an eye on South Carolina, Alaska, Missouri and Montana. But don’t actually bother. Texas is already in play and that’s a far more realistic and exciting long shot.
Senate
Even the US Senate, with its strong two party system, uses a semi-circular chamber. Catch up Westminster. - Eric Haynes on Rising up with Sonali - Creative Commons license.
There are 33 seats up for election in the Senate this year, with an additional two senate elections in Georgia (which also has a regular election) and Arizona (ultimately to replace former presidential nominee John McCain - US special elections are a bit complicated compared to by-elections).
Frankly, not all of them are interesting. Idaho and Wyoming will elect Republicans. Maryland and Rhode Island will elect Democrats. Other contests may have been interesting had the fortunes of their parties been different - there’s a 2020 where states like Colorado, Virginia or New Hampshire would have been interesting races. As is all three are pretty certain to be Democratic in this 2020 and therefore aren’t interesting.
Below are a variety of states that I consider of interest - these are essentially Senate races that might still be competitive, states that wouldn’t have been considered competitive at the start of the year but now might be in play and also Alabama.
It’s also worth noting that there’s a level of fine detail in polls that I’ve largely not looked into that could tilt close races - primarily the demographic proportion of undecided voters. A large number of undecided whites without a degree indicates there may be some movement towards the Republicans on voting day, similarly a large number of undecided blacks would indicate the opposite.
Michigan
This state was an unexpected (and narrow) flip to the Republicans on the presidential level in 2016 and doubtless, along with Minnesota, would have been a prime Republican target in the Senate had the national climate been more favourable to them.
It is not. Democratic incumbent Gary Peters has a consistent 4%-10% lead with most pollsters save for those of the Trafalgar Group, which are of notoriously poor quality and, frankly, worth ignoring altogether. Although the Democrat in Minnesota has a slightly heftier lead I’d have considered Michigan as also too uninteresting to write about had it not been for Peters’ opponent.
The Republican John James was nearly able to win Michigan’s other Senate seat in 2018, a very strong year for the Democrats. Although I struggle to see a Republican down by 4% making up the difference this year (in contrast to the Democrats, who are well monied and might make a few of those longer shots) I cannot entirely rule it out as James has proven himself a capable campaigner, even though I doubt I’d approve of his policies personally.
Maine
Peter Fitzgerald for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons.
Something most Americans with an interest in politics will know but which many Europeans might not is how New England is a little quirky with its voting. It’s well known for being mostly solidly blue at the presidential level but is distinctly more mixed elsewhere.
For instance New Hampshire and Vermont are both expected to safely re-elect their Republican governors, and although this isn’t unique (for instance solidly red Kentucky and Louisiana have Democratic governors and California famously elected Arnold Schwarzenegger) it’s still notable. Particularly as this is the same Vermont that regularly re-elects Bernie Sanders as an independent!
Which brings us neatly to senators - the second independent senator in Congress (Angus King - Maine) is also from the region. Overall a hefty proportion of recent independent senators represented states in New England, it’s somewhat characteristic of the region. This willingness to vote outside the Democratic party historically has extended to Republicans, and particularly to moderate socially liberal Republicans such as Olympia Snowe (Maine) and Susan Collins (also Maine) who are seen as willing to work across party lines and act in a bipartisan manner. However these have slowly become a rarer breed and Collins is arguably the last in Congress in the region.
And her brand is, reportedly, tarnished from voting to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh despite it imbalancing the court and the sexual assault allegations against him. Regardless of the cause she’s moved from one of the most popular senators in the USA to the least and faces a stiff race to retain her seat for the first time since her very first election.
Her opponent is Sara Gideon, a former speaker for the Maine state legislature and mainstream Democrat who won their primary handily. From an outsider’s perspective she looks a formidable opponent but ultimately this race is primarily about the extent of Collins’ fall from grace. To some extent this is a special race, as it wouldn’t have been expected to be competitive ahead of time but it being so is more to do with the incumbent’s behaviour than how well the Democrats are doing nationwide.
The state has plenty of high quality polling, consistently indicating a Gideon lead but varying between 1% and 12%.
Georgia (Regular)
There are two Senate elections in Georgia this year - the regular election and the special election.
No, you’ve got the wrong Georgia. Be grateful I didn’t do this bad joke for Maine too. - Accipte7 for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons.
For the regular election incumbent Republican and former businessman David Purdue, broadly seen as a Trump loyalist, will face off against journalist Jon Ossoff. This is one of many races that would likely have been expected to not be competitive but, unlike in Maine and like many other states, the favourable national picture for the Democrats has made this race viable.
Many American commentators suggest that the Democrats failed to find strong candidates for both Georgia races but, truth be told, I’ve not got that far into the weeds - although it’s clear that Stacey Abrams would have been in a good position to benefit from the Republican’s current weakness.
Georgia (Special)
Georgia is holding a special election to replace former senator Johnny Isakson. It also does special elections differently to most places in the USA.
They hold what is called a jungle primary on election day where all candidates, including the appointed incumbent (Republican Kelly Loeffler), of all parties run against each other. A run-off will then be held in early January 2021 and the winner will serve until 2023. This is a race that has become competitive not only because of national dynamics, as with the regular election, but also due to the dynamics this two-round setup allows.
With a five-way race and with three Democratic candidates it would have been possible for two Republicans to top the poll and for this seat to be a foregone conclusion to remain Republican. And for much of this year the polling indicated Democratic vote splitting that would do just that - with the Rev Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman (son of former Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman) both polling in the high teens and the third Democrat, Ed Tarver, trailing. Broadly the seat was considered safe Republican due to this.
In August however Warnock drew ahead of Liberman and currently tops most polls of the first round of voting, although an all-Republican run-off is still not totally outside the realms of possibility.
Polling of hypothetical run-offs always come with risks, not least the amount of time until it actually happens, and has been relatively limited. This said what is there indicates that the other Republican, Doug Collins, would defeat Loeffler in an all-Republican run-off. Against Warnock it looks like Loefller would also likely lose and between Warnock and Collins the most recent two polls show double digit leads! In both directions. So it’s fair to say that’s currently up in the air.
Montana
The landscapes in Montana look pretty great, I regret going for maps rather than photos now. - Peter Fitzgerald for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons.
Montana is a scarcely polled state which is firmly Republican at the presidential level but more marginal for the Senate and for governorships. Currently its senator up for re-election is Republican Steve Daines but John Tester, its other senator, is a Democrat, as is its incumbent governor Steve Bullock - demonstrating this neatly. This Steve Bullock is the same one who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination last year.
I’ve seen various explanations for this, often revolving around the state being rural but also holding positions antithetical to many modern Republican views, for instance being majority pro-life, but nevertheless it makes it one of those states that’s more interesting than a first glance would indicate.
Like many states Montana’s senate race was expected to be a safe Republican hold. But, although it likely helped, the nationwide swing to the Democrats was not the cause of its competitive Senate race. Rather it was due to Steve Bullock, who was popular but term-limited and therefore prevented from running again for his governor. He had declared he had no interest in running for Senate but back-tracked on this on the last possible day, apparently not harming his reputation in the process. Out of nowhere the Democrats had a heavyweight candidate.
And, though it’s hard to tell with such light polling, the state may be close. Polls in the spring and summer indicate Bullock winning, with margins from 1% to 7%. Polls in the summer onward indicate Daines winning with margins from 1% to 6%. On the surface this looks like a steady leakage of support but as every poll in the state so far has been by a different firm it’s also consistent with a very marginal race, with the change over time being due to house effects of each polling company.
Unless the presidential results are far better for Democrats than they look at present Montana won’t be interesting at that level, unless you’re interested in margins. But for the Senate the battle of the Steves should be rivetting!
Kansas
The inspiration for the map of Oz - Peter Fitzgerald for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons license.
This state, historically, isn’t even interesting at the state level - the last time Kansas elected a Democratic senator was 1932. However in 2018 the party managed to win the state’s governorship, defeating Republican Kris Kobach, and they are continuing strongly into 2020.
As to why this suddenly makes the senate election competitive, Kris Kobach ran for the Republican nomination for Senate. Suddenly Democrats paid attention as he was now seen as a weak candidate and, had he won the nomination, the race would be viable. However ultimately he lost handily to Roger Marshall, a current member of the House of Representatives.
Despite this what sparse polling there is in the state doesn’t indicate a Republican blow-out. The Democrat candidate, Barbara Bollier, is a moderate who defected from the Republicans after refusing to endorse Kris Kobach in 2018 and, against expectations, may still be competitive. The data from the state is rather mucky, due to lack of data points, but results range from a modest Bollier victory to a high single digits Marshall victory.
Texas
A once ruby red state trending distinctly purple over the last decade and considered a swing state at the presidential level this year. The senate seat is held by John Cornyn, a senior senator and former whip seeking a fourth term. I assume people reading this are likely to be British, or at least European, so suffice to say his positions are largely what our possibly unfair stereotypes about Texas would suggest.
His democratic opponent is air force veteran MJ Hegar who beat her nearest opponent Royce West by 4-5% in a run-off. I couldn’t see any obvious ideological difference between these candidates from what I’ve seen, both seem to be fairly middle-of-the-road Democrats policy-wise.
In contrast to many states Texas has been polled quite often, even having the luxury of being covered by the same pollsters multiple times. Cornyn consistently leads in these polls, though the margin runs from within the margin of error to low double digits. Given the symbolism of electing a Democrat in Texas, once considered a by-word for conservatism, this race has understandably elicited a lot of excitement among supporters of the Democrats. Arguably it’s somewhat of a long shot though.
South Carolina
Olde English District? What? - Peter Fitzgerald for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons.
This state was never meant to be competitive. Incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham is a big name, who had gained a reputation for holding moderate positions and working with Democrats on issues of interest. He retained his seat very comfortably even in Obama’s stupendous 2008 victory so should have weathered the worst storm he could have expected.
A former solider and a former lawyer he was perhaps most famous in 2016, being a vocal Never Trumper and providing internal opposition to his agenda. Until 2017 when he suddenly came pro-Trump for reasons unknown. Given South Carolina has a reputation for being conservative this might not have been expected to be a problem for his re-election. However his voting to disallow the Senate to vote on Obama’s proposed Supreme Court nomination in an election year, repeatedly asking people to hold him to that precedent and then breaking it in 2020 may well do.
However recent high-quality polling in the state consistently shows a knife-edge fight for his Senate seat between him and Democrat Jaime Harrison (who is considered a capable opponent). Perhaps the polls are wrong and the expected Republican hold will materialise next month. Nevertheless this state is, against all odds, one to watch.
Mississippi
For clarification, no, that’s not the Oxford you’re thinking of - Shaundd for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons.
This is likely not the kind of state you’d expect Democrats to do well in. But I’ll have you know that compared to Louisiana and Alabama it’s positively fertile territory. Which is to say it’s still not the kind of state you’d expect Democrats to do well in. But, as in any FPTP system, you get talented people who land on barren ground. In the UK who knows if there’s some incredibly talented Labour member in Littlehampton or a talented Tory in Tower Hamlets unless and until they move?
In the US an example of this is Mississippi Democrat Mike Espy, formerly of the House of Representatives (the first African-American to represent the states since Reconstruction), variously described as a conservative or moderate Democrat. His senatorial story begins in 2018 when Mississippi’s Republican senator (Thad Cochran) resigned, Cindy Hyde-Smith was appointed to replace him and a special election held. Mississippi holds non-partisan jungle primaries and in the run-off Mike Epsy faced off against Hyde-Smith and clearly lost.
However he increased Democratic vote share by 10% due to an energetic campaign and controversies around Hyde-Smith (including comments that appeared to be pro-lynching and photos of her visiting a Confederate general’s house).
2020 is an exact rematch of the 2018 run-off, with the exact same candidates. As Espy lost by 7% previously this was widely expected to be a Republican hold but two summer polls (out of three) have indicated a closer race including one indicating there’s only 1% in the race. Since then this race has got more attention and money, as a long shot but still a possible Democratic gain.
Even by the standards of many of the other contests here though this is a very under-polled race. More than any other state save perhaps Alaska more data is needed here! It’s very hard to tell if this state is genuinely close or whether election nerds like myself have got excited over an outlier poll.
Alabama
Shaundd for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons.
What does it take for a Democrat to get elected in deep red Alabama? In UK politics an equivalent might be what would it take for a left winger to get elected to Christchurch. In the UK when that happened the answer was a massive collapse in the Conservative party in the early 90s and an inconveniently timed (for the Tories) by-election. In the US the answer was that an Alabama Republican senatorial candidate (Roy Moore) was a credibly alleged child predator and on the ballot. Even in this extreme context the (moderate) Democrat Doug Jones still only scraped through.
Unfortunately for Doug Jones although Roy Moore was daft enough to try and run again Republican primary voters weren’t daft enough to give him the nomination. So former American football coach Tommy Tuberville got it instead. Tuberville is a candidate that has what it takes for a Republican to win in Alabama. A lack of credible child abuse allegations.
Of course Tuberville does have his own scandals, including being sued for fraud in the past, but it’s not child abuse. So this is widely expected to be the only Republican flip of the night, as polls mostly indicate a double-digit lead for Tuberville. However this state has been polled only six times since the start of June, mostly by low quality pollsters, and Doug Jones is reportedly well respected in the state so there is some room for scepticism at the data. With this said few have been bold enough to openly state they expect him to hold the seat, in my view with good cause.
Kentucky
The two most remarkable things on this map to me are that Cincinnati is so close to Kentucky and that someone named a town Bowling Green. - Peter Fitzgerald for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons.
The incumbent Republican here is Mitch McConnell - Senate Majority Leader. A big fish indeed and one safely ensconced in a very conservative state, despite being rather unpopular.
So why the interest? He is up against conservative Democrat and armed forces veteran Amy McGrath, who narrowly beat the progressive Charles Booker and had been polling closely against McConnell (even taking slight leads). She’d also been raising record breaking sums for her run for Congress, in a year where the Democrats have plenty of money her campaign is still notably rich!
However this polling success has been far more spotty recently with 7-15% leads for McConnell in every poll since August. There is a possibility that it is simply difficult to poll this state, as it’s rarely done, and certainly even prior to August the figures were volatile. One poll in June showed a 1% McGrath lead, the next batch nine days later showed 14% and 20% McConnell leads, the one after in July had this down to 4%. These were all different pollsters, only one has polled the state twice, but these are extremely variable numbers regardless.
There is a sense that McGrath had real momentum at one point but that it’s been lost, a common complaint of Democrats on Twitter is that sending money to her campaign has become a waste. But the truth is that the data in this state is low quality - it’s entirely possible she’s still in contention. It’s equally possible she never was in contention in the first place. We’ll only ever know for sure about whether that first one is right.
Alaska
Another state where I regret opting for maps over random photos. - Peter Fitzgerald for Wikimedia Commons - Creative Commons.
Technically a Democrat gain here is impossible - independents, Democrats, Alaskan Independence and Libertarians hold shared primaries in Alaska to select a joint candidate and the winner this time was independent Al Gross, a surgeon and fisherman and son of a former Attorney General for Alaska. This said, independents in the US seem to typically remain affiliated with one side or the other and Gross is expected to caucus with Democrats, analogous to Bernie Sanders’ arrangements.
His opponent is Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Unlike fellow Alaskan Republican Lisa Murkowski he does not have a reputation as a moderate, though he did initially oppose Trump.
This is yet another under-polled race. Indeed, interest in this race only began when followers of US elections on Twitter crowdfunded a poll of the state showing a completely even race. Many have concluded that the details of the undecided voters meant the incumbent still had the advantage but, nevertheless, interest was piqued. Sadly only one more poll has followed despite the tightness of this race.
As an aside Alaska is also interesting as the only state I’m aware of where Democrats are currently stronger in the countryside than in the cities, due to the Native Alaskan population in rural areas. Not relevant to the race, unless you’re very much a details person, but interesting for its own sake, I think.
Other
Arizona is holding a special election. The incumbent, Martha McSally, was appointed to the Senate seat after Jon Kyl (himself a replacement for the deceased John McCain) resigned. In 2018 McSally attempted to win Arizona’s other Senate seat and lost to the Democrat Krysten Sinema. She now faces off against Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelley and is unlikely to have a third chance.
Unfortunately for her this race heavily favours the Democrat Kelly, with most polls showing him around 9% ahead. However it’s one to watch as the winner will enter the Senate in late November rather than early January - which is of relevance to any last minute legislation to be passed, potentially including any regarding Supreme Court nominations after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg.
Iowa is a state that looks hyper-marginal, with perhaps the slight edge to the Democrat Theresa Greenfield. The incumbent is Joni Ernst, considered a key Trump ally. This is one of many states that wouldn’t have been thought to be in contention this time last year but which has come into view for the Democrats.
North Carolina looks to be a potentially interesting race, with polling indicating a Democrat lead varying from 1% to the low teens. However the Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham has had a recent scandal, with sexts he sent being released to the public. However as, although he’s married, these appear to be consensual, with a woman who is of age. The texts don’t make it clear if they even had sex. So this seems to be a minor sexual scandal so far as these things go, and given this story broke on the same day as Donald Trump contracting COVID-19 it’s unclear how much this story will cut through, let alone impact the race. But it’s still worth noting.
His opponent Thom Tillis appears to be a fairly conventional Republican, notable for initially opposing Trump but also for having some links with Cambridge Analytica before they became (in)famous.
My predictions
Presidential
Very bad day for Democrats
As I’d stated before I don’t think Biden is realistically going to lose at this juncture. So this is my worst case realistic scenario, assuming no huge polling mishaps.
Were Trump to do better than this Wisconsin and Nevada could flip, followed by Pennsylvania. But with Biden up about five points relative to Hilary I just don’t see that as realistic, I had to think before even dropping Arizona from the blue column for a worst case scenario. Some Republican commentators have suggested Oregon could flip red - this is because these commentators are fools.
There’s a month to go, extreme things can happen, we might get some big polling errors but without assuming that will happen I think anything worse than this map is like speculating on Biden flipping Alaska. Not impossible but not realistic either.
As expected
353-183 - nipping at Obama’s heels.
If I had to stick to one projection this would be it. Georgia, I think, would be very close - Iowa likely could be as well (and Ohio in the other direction). However I think Texas would still be a few percentage points away from flipping to the Democrats. This is still an extremely good result, only narrowly falling short of Obama’s 2008 landslide.
Very good day for Democrats
This is, I think, not the most likely outcome but I also think it’s one that could happen. This would be the biggest win for the Democrats since Lyndon B. Johnson and, truth be told, I don’t think there’s that much in the popular vote between this and the “bad day” scenario.
In any case, this is a best case as things stand about a month before the actual vote. Some states may fade out of view for Biden, some (South Carolina being the least unlikely) may come into view.
Senate
Very bad day for Democrats
50-50 - the vice-president’ll be busy.
The slimmest possible control and, I think, quite a generous worst case for the Democrats. Nevertheless with the caveat that this map assumes Cal Cunningham’s sexting scandal doesn’t impact him I have trouble seeing the Republicans doing any better than this.
In Michigan they have a very talented candidate but the headwinds blowing heavily against him. In Arizona they have a poorly regarded candidate and even if Biden loses the state I can’t see it remaining red in the Senate. Maine has been lost by Collins, not won by the Democrats and Cunningham currently looks pretty secure in polling. As things stand I struggle to remove anything from the blue column.
But this is the worst realistic scenario in my view and without assuming a massive polling error, maybe time will make a fool of me. Events certainly could make a map worse than this for the blues, I just think it’s very unlikely. Just like I think anything better than the “very good day” scenario is very unlikely.
As expected
52-48 - slim but comfortable control.
I expect my Georgia call, with the special being safer than the regular, is likely to be controversial but otherwise not too many surprises here.
Personally I think Democrats Ossoff, Bullock and Harrison are all only slightly odds-off, so something between this and the “very good day” scenario isn’t unlikely. One or all could scrape through without it being remarkable. Similarly I think Iowa is only slightly leaning towards the Democrats and a lot could go wrong in the Georgia special election given it’s months away so something between this and the “bad day” scenario is also realistic. Or a even a mix of both.
Very good day for Democrats
57-43 - everything coming up Milhouse for the blues.
You’ll notice the lack of a blue Kentucky, Alabama, Texas or Mississippi. With three of these, frankly, I see them as the equivalent of a blue South Carolina at the presidential level - just a little bit beyond the realms of realistic possibility.
With Mississippi I simply don’t think there’s enough data to be sure it actually is close - if the data we have is accurate I fully expect it to flip on a good day but it’s also possible that it’s inaccurate and the Republicans hold it by double digits.
Wrapping up
This was a far longer post than intended, even with cuts! I’m curious to know what people, particularly those who know more than me, think of the predictions - if you want to make your own go to 270towin and feel free to post them here or send them to me on social media. Hope to do a shorter update much closer to the day itself.